FXUS64 KJAN 050248 AAA
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
848 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012

.UPDATE...FORECAST UPDATED TO REMOVE PRECIP FOR TONIGHT AND ADD FOG 
FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THIS EVENING. HOURLY GRIDS HAVE 
BEEN CHANGED TO REFLECT CURRENT OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS. UPDATED 
WEATHER AND AVIATION DISCUSSIONS FOLLOW BELOW. /DL/

.DISCUSSION...SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY PUSHING 
ACROSS THE CWA...AND CURRENTLY EXTENDS FROM NATCHEZ TO NEAR THE 
GOLDEN TRIANGLE. PREFRONTAL BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS 
NOW PUSHED INTO ALABAMA...WITH ONLY PATCHY DRIZZLE AND LOW CLOUDS 
LINGERING IN AREAS GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. WITH MEASURABLE 
RAIN MOVING OUT OF THE AREA...POPS HAVE BEEN LOWERED FOR OVERNIGHT.

BREEZIER NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND LOWER DEWPOINTS IN THE 30S AND 40S 
ARE LAGGING BEHIND THE FRONT...BACK OVER CENTRAL AR AND NORTHWEST 
LA. THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT MIXING IN THE AREAS BETWEEN THE EXITING 
PRECIPITATION AND ADVANCING FRONT HAS ALLOWED FOR SOME FOG 
DEVELOPMENT...PRIMARILY ALONG AND EAST OF I-55. VISIBILITIES AS LOW 
AS A HALF MILE HAVE BEEN COMMON ACROSS THE GOLDEN TRIANGLE OVER THE 
PAST FEW HOUR. AS WINDS INCREASE AND A DRIER AIR MASS CONTINUES TO 
MOVE IN OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...FOG IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE. 
IN THE MEAN TIME...PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE FORECAST FOR 
THESE AREAS.

ALL OTHER FORECAST ELEMENTS REMAIN ON TRACK...AND NO OTHER MAJOR 
CHANGES WILL BE MADE. /DL/

.AVIATION...MVFR CIGS WILL BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. 
AREAS OF FOG CAN BE EXPECTED WITH LOCAL PATCHES OF IFR/LIFR 
CONDITIONS...MAINLY EAST OF I-55. FOG WILL CLEAR BY 14Z WITH BKN-OVC 
DECKS 2-4K FEET BY MID MORNING. /03/

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 324 PM CST SAT FEB 4 2012/
SHORT TERM...THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING IN FROM 
THE NORTHWEST WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION...BRINGING COOLER AND 
DRIER AIR TO THE REGION FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE 
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE TIGHTENED AS THIS OCCURS...RESULTING IN 
BREEZY CONDITIONS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE UPPER TROUGH WILL DIP SOUTH 
AND SWING ON THROUGH JUST TO OUR NORTH. THIS MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE 
OUT JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE FOR A FEW SPRINKLES BUT I AM THINKING THE 
GREATEST RESULT OF THIS WILL BE SOME LINGERING CLOUD COVER. 

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN AT THE SFC THROUGH THE END OF THE SHORT 
TERM WITH SOME RIDGING ALOFT. TEMPERATURES FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT 
WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE...A LITTLE MORE REALISTIC FOR EARLY 
FEBRUARY. WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LINGERING CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN 
WINDS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWS WILL LIKELY NOT GET AS COOL...BUT COME 
MONDAY NIGHT THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE A BIT BETTER AND 
SKIES WILL BE CLEARER FOR LOWS TO DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MID 30S. /28/

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WEAK SURFACE RIDGING WILL 
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA ON TUESDAY WITH ANOTHER COOL DAY ON TAP...BUT 
BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF INDICATE THAT A SHORT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE 
AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE SHORT WAVE 
WILL HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE TO WORK WITH AS PWATS BELOW AN 
INCH...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY 
AS IT MOVES THROUGH.

SPLIT FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE 
WEEK...WITH BOTH THE ECMWF AND THE GFS CUTTING OFF A LOW NEAR BAJA 
MEXICO THURSDAY/FRIDAY AND DEEPENING UPPER TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN
CONUS. THE GFS/ECMWF DEEPEN A SURFACE LOW IN THE GULF AND MOVE IT
ACROSS FLORIDA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT AS UPPER TROUGHING DEEPENS 
OVER THE AREA...ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA 
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRONGER SURFACE HIGH BUILDING IN 
FOR THE WEEKEND. FEEL THE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW IN GULF 
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA AS STRONG SURFACE RIDGING AND DRY 
NORTHERLY FLOW PREVAILS. HAVE DECIDED TO CUT POPS LATER IN THE WEEK 
DUE TO THIS...AS GFS MOS GUIDANCE CAME IN WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS. 
STUCK PRETTY CLOSE TO GUIDANCE TEMPS THROUGH THE PERIOD./15/

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...NONE.
LA...NONE.
AR...NONE.

DL/03/28/15