000
FXUS64 KJAN 121006
AFDJAN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
406 AM CST FRI MAR 12 2010

.DISCUSSION...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MUCH COOLER WEATHER IS IN
STORE FOR THE ARKLAMISS AS WE HEAD INTO THE WEEKEND AS A CLOSED UPPER
LOW DIGS SOUTHEAST FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE TN VALLEY. CYCLONIC FLOW
AND COLD ADVECTION 925MB TEMPS DOWN TO 3 C WILL RESULT IN
WIDESPREAD STRATOCUMULUS...AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY COULD BE
SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS RAINFALL 
.10...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20. GRADIENT WINDS
AND MIXING WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO REQUIRE THE ISSUANCE OF A LAKE
WIND ADVISORY FOR LARGER LAKES FROM MID MORNING THROUGH THE AFTN. THE
COLD ADVECTION AND CLOUD COVER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW
CLIMATIC AVERAGE FOR SATURDAY...AND GFS MOS GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES
LOOK REASONABLE. /EC/

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT FRIDAY...THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW
THATS BEEN PLAGUING THE REGION LATE THIS WEEK...WILL CONTINUE TO
HANG AROUND THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY...BEFORE FINALLY SHOVING
OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT THOUGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING CLOUDS TO THE
REGION...AS WELL AS SOME VERY SMALL RAIN CHANCES TO THE FAR NORTHERN
HALF OF THE CWA EARLY SATURDAY EVENING. THESE RAIN CHANCES WILL
EVENTUALLY TAPER OFF SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT AGAIN CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED
TO HANG AROUND.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.  ALTHOUGH SOME CLOUDS
WILL HANG AROUND DURING THIS TIME...DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE ENTIRE REGION INTO MONDAY AS THE BEFORE MENTIONED SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO EXIT TO THE EAST.

ANOTHER SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO SWING
THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH MID WEEK.  THIS WILL BRING SOME
SMALL RAIN CHANCES BACK INTO THE FORECAST DURING THIS TIME.  AT THE
MOMENT THOUGH IT APPEARS THEYLL MAINLY JUST BRING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUD COVER TO THE REGION THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

CLOUDS...ALONG WITH ANY RAIN CHANCES...WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST AND
OUT OF THE CWA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE...WITH UPPER RIDGING ALOFT...BUILDS BACK INTO THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. /19/

.AVIATION...THE COLD ADVECTION PATTERN WILL SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF
STRATOCUMULUS AS WE GO THROUGH THIS AFTN INTO SATURDAY. INITIALLY
CEILINGS WILL BE BASED RELATIVELY HIGH AND MOSTLY IN THE VFR
CATEGORY...BUT EXPECT A LOWERING OF CEILINGS AS WE HEAD INTO
SATURDAY WHEN THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKE ITS CLOSEST PASS...AND SOME
MVFR RESTRICTIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...GUSTY NORTHWEST TO
WEST WINDS WILL CREATE TURBULENT CONDITIONS AT THE SFC TODAY. /EC/

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
JACKSON       66  42  55  39 /  15  16  20   9
MERIDIAN      66  41  56  38 /  45  16  26  11
VICKSBURG     64  42  56  40 /   9  16  17   7
HATTIESBURG   69  44  61  41 /  17   5   7   7
NATCHEZ       64  42  57  41 /   3   9   8   4
GREENVILLE    60  41  55  42 /  24  29  30  14
GREENWOOD     64  41  54  42 /  39  31  37  14

.JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MS...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR MSZ026-030-031-043-049-052.

LA...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR LAZ009.

AR...LAKE WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM CST THIS
     EVENING FOR ARZ075.

EC/19